Hays, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

653
FXUS63 KDDC 282003
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
203 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain chances (60-80%) late Wednesday.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures arrive early this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025

WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft shifting eastward through
the Southern High Plains. Near the surface, high pressure dominates
the Northern/Central Rockies.

Prevailing dry pattern through early Wednesday will give way to
increasing light rain chances (60 to 80%) late Wednesday as the
SREF continues to indicate a closed upper low in southern
California/western Arizona beginning to shift slowly east this
evening and moving into western New Mexico early Wednesday,
allowing an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft to develop
across the Western High Plains. Despite moisture remaining relatively
limited as suggested by weak QPF signals, enough moisture associated
with the system itself combined with increased lift and an intensifying
upper level jet lifting northeast through the Texas Panhandle will
set the set stage for light rain development mainly late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening. The best chance for any rain remains
to be across extreme southwest Kansas and eastward into south central
Kansas where the HREF shows a 60-80% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding
a minimal 0.1 of an inch by early Thursday morning. Could see a break
in rain chances during the day Thursday as drier air accompanying
the upper low lifts northeast into western/central Kansas. Light
snow mixed in cannot be ruled out in extreme southwest Kansas
Wednesday night as colder air begins to filter into the area,
though minimal accumulations at best are expected, if any.

Below freezing temperatures are likely again tonight with little
change to the general airmass across the high plains of western
Kansas. Expect lows mainly in the 20s(F) with the HREF indicating a
60 to 80% probability of temperatures dropping below 30F in west
central and southwest Kansas with 50 to 70% probability of
temperatures below 35F in south central Kansas. Fairly seasonal
temperatures are forecast Wednesday with increasing cloud cover
likely by early afternoon. The HREF suggests a 30-50% probability of
afternoon highs even exceeding 40F in extreme southwest Kansas to 60
to 80% probability of temperatures topping 45F in central/south
central Kansas. Temperatures begin to rebound Friday as the upper
level system quickly exits eastward out of the Central Plains while
lee side troughing begins to develop in eastern Colorado in wake of
a departing surface high. This is supported by the NBM painting
better than a 90% probability of afternoon highs climbing above 50F
across much of southwest Kansas to a 40 to 60% probability of nudging
above 50F in central Kansas. Well above normal temperatures are
likely early this weekend as a warmer airmass spreads into western
Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1012 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Wednesday. Light and variable winds will persist through early
Wednesday as a weak area of high pressure slides southeast out of
the Northern High Plains into the Central Plains during the period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson